【作者】 黄鹏伟；

【导师】 刘瑞光；

【作者基本信息】 江西师范大学 ， 基础心理学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 时间折扣与概率折扣分别可以反映延迟选择结果与风险决策结果的折扣率大小。其中，前者指在延迟选择中预期结果的主观值随延迟时间的增加而减小；后者指在风险决策中风险结果的主观值随赔率的增加(即风险概率的减小)而减小，且两者均遵循准双曲线折扣模型。以往大部分对于决策理论的研究集中在时间折扣或概率折扣，以及其若干效应和相互作用等问题上，而很少关注二者的复合效应，即复合性折扣（时间-概率折扣与概率-时间折扣）。本研究基于三个金额(10元、100元、1000元)下的收益和损失两种情境，以及各七个水平的延迟时间（1天、1周、1月、6月、1年、5年和10年）和风险概率（97%、83%、54%、16%、9%、2%和1%），从延迟时间和风险概率共同作用的视角考察决策者的决策行为，并分别采用固定序列法（实验一）和分半滴定法（实验二）两种实验方法来探讨在两者共同影响下产生的复合效应折扣率及其曲线模型，从而进一步对时间折扣率与概率折扣率对复合效应折扣率的贡献率做出比较。实验结果显示：（1）与时间折扣、概率折扣相似，在延迟时间和风险概率的影响下，二者的复合效应也遵循准双曲线折扣模型；（2）两种复合性折扣（时间-概率折扣与概率-时间折扣）之间无显著差异。（3）不同于时间折扣与概率折扣，两种复合性折扣均不存在符号效应和量值效应。（4）概率折扣对复合型折扣的贡献率更高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Time discounting and probability discounting can respectively reflect the sizes ofthe discount rates deriving from the results of inter-temporal choices and riskdecisions. There-into, the former means that the subjective value of a desired resultreduces with the increase of the delay time, the latter is regarded as the subjectivevalue of a probable result reduces with the increase of the odds(the decrease of theprobability),and the two both follow the quasi-hyperbolic model. Most of past studysabout decisions thesis all focused on time discounting or probability discounting, andthe problems of their several effects and interaction, but rarely paid attention to theircombined effects, that is, the combined discounting including time-probabilitydiscounting and probability-time discounting.On the basis of the two different situations of gains and losses of threeamounts(10yuan,100yuan,100yuan), and seven different kinds of delay-time(1day,1week,1month, six months,1year, five years and ten years) andrisk-probability(97%,83%,54%,16%,9%,2%and1%), this study bands togetherinter-temporal choices and risk decisions, and uses separately methods offixed-sequence(experiment1) and bisection-titration (experiment2) to research thecombined effects of time discounting and probability discounting under the influenceof the delayed time and the probability.The results reveal that the combined effect also corresponds with thequasi-hyperbolic model under the influence of delay-time and risk-probability, as aretime discounting and probability discounting, and there is no significance differencebetween two combined discountings (time discounting and probability discounting).However, in the two combined discountings, the sign effect and magnitude effect bothhave not be explored, but time discounting and probability discounting. Moreover, forthe contributions to the discount rate of the combined effects, probability discountingis higher than time discounting.更多还原